85 lines
2.7 KiB
Plaintext
85 lines
2.7 KiB
Plaintext
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%%%% Bayesian networks for Asia network -- asia.psm
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%%%%
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%%%% Copyright (C) 2007,2008
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%%%% Sato Laboratory, Dept. of Computer Science,
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%%%% Tokyo Institute of Technology
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%% This example is known as the Asia network, and was borrowed from:
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%% S. L. Lauritzen and D. J. Spiegelhalter (1988).
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%% Local computations with probabilities on graphical structures
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%% and their application to expert systems.
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%% Journal of Royal Statistical Society, Vol.B50, No.2, pp.157-194.
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%%
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%% ((Smoking[S]))
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%% ((Visit to Asia[A])) / \
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%% | / \
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%% v v \
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%% (Tuberculosis[T]) (Lang cancer[L]) \
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%% \ / \
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%% \ / v
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%% v v (Bronchinitis[B])
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%% (Tuberculosis or lang cancer[TL]) /
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%% / \ /
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%% / \ /
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%% v \ /
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%% ((X-ray[X])) v v
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%% ((Dyspnea[D]))
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%%
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%% We assume that the nodes A, S, X and D are observable. This
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%% program provides a naive representation of the Asia network, as
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%% shown in ../alarm.psm. The junction-tree version of the Asia
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%% network program is given in jasia.psm
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%%-------------------------------------
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%% Quick start:
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%%
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%% ?- prism(asia),go.
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go:- chindsight_agg(world(f,_,_,t),world(f,query,_,_,_,_,_,t)).
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% we compute a conditional distribution P(T | A=false, D=true)
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%%-------------------------------------
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%% Declarations:
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values(bn(_,_),[t,f]). % each switch takes on true or false
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%%-------------------------------------
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%% Modeling part:
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world(A,S,X,D):- world(A,_,S,_,_,X,_,D).
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world(A,T,S,L,TL,X,B,D) :-
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msw(bn(a,[]),A),msw(bn(t,[A]),T),
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msw(bn(s,[]),S),msw(bn(l,[S]),L),
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incl_or(T,L,TL),
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msw(bn(x,[TL]),X),msw(bn(b,[S]),B),
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msw(bn(d,[TL,B]),D).
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% inclusive OR
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incl_or(t,t,t).
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incl_or(t,f,t).
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incl_or(f,t,t).
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incl_or(f,f,f).
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%%-------------------------------------
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%% Utility part:
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:- set_params.
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set_params:-
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set_sw(bn(a,[]),[0.01,0.99]),
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set_sw(bn(t,[t]),[0.05,0.95]),
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set_sw(bn(t,[f]),[0.01,0.99]),
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set_sw(bn(s,[]),[0.5,0.5]),
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set_sw(bn(l,[t]),[0.1,0.9]),
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set_sw(bn(l,[f]),[0.01,0.99]),
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set_sw(bn(x,[t]),[0.98,0.02]),
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set_sw(bn(x,[f]),[0.05,0.95]),
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set_sw(bn(b,[t]),[0.60,0.40]),
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set_sw(bn(b,[f]),[0.30,0.70]),
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set_sw(bn(d,[t,t]),[0.90,0.10]),
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set_sw(bn(d,[t,f]),[0.70,0.30]),
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set_sw(bn(d,[f,t]),[0.80,0.20]),
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set_sw(bn(d,[f,f]),[0.10,0.90]).
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